Predictable Surprises

Physical

Available

You and Your Organization Are at Risk Were the earth-shattering events of September 11, 2001, predictable, or were they a surprise? What about the collapse of Enron in bankruptcy and scandal? Max H. Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins argue that they were actually "predictable surprises"-disastrous examples of the failure to recognize potential tragedies and actively work to prevent them. Disturbingly, this dangerous phenomenon has its roots in universal human and organizational tendencies that leave no individual or company immune. In this riveting book, Bazerman and Watkins, leading experts in managerial decision making, show that many disasters are preceded by clear warning signals that leaders either miss-or purposely ignore.

They explain the cognitive, organizational, and political biases that make predictable surprises so common in business and society, and outline six danger signals that suggest a predictable surprise may be imminent. They also provide a systematic framework that leaders can use to recognize and prioritize brewing disasters and mobilize their organizations to prevent them. Filled with vivid accounts of predictable surprises in business and society across public and private sectors, this book highlights a phenomenon that holds grave consequences-and challenges leaders to find the courage to act before it's too late. A Leadership for the Common Good book Published in partnership with the Center for Public Leadership

What will you learn from this book

Recognizing Patterns: The book highlights how many crises or negative events are predictable based on patterns and signals that are often ignored or overlooked.
Avoidable Crises: Discusses how many disasters, failures, or crises could have been prevented if proper attention had been paid to warning signs or foreseeable issues.
Risk Assessment and Management: Emphasizes the importance of robust risk assessment and management systems within organizations to identify potential threats.
Decision-Making Biases: Explores cognitive biases that hinder individuals and organizations from foreseeing and adequately addressing potential crises.
Organizational Culture: Discusses how organizational culture, including aspects like hierarchies, communication, and groupthink, can contribute to a failure to anticipate and prevent crises.
Leadership and Accountability: Highlights the role of leadership in crisis anticipation and prevention, emphasizing the importance of accountability in decision-making.
Learning from Past Mistakes: Encourages learning from past crises and failures to prevent similar occurrences in the future.
Preparedness and Resilience: Advocates for building resilience within organizations, ensuring they are prepared to respond effectively to crises.
Regulatory and Policy Implications: Discusses how regulatory policies and frameworks can contribute to or mitigate the likelihood of predictable surprises.
Mitigating Future Crises: Offers strategies and recommendations for individuals and organizations to proactively identify and address predictable surprises before they become crises.

Language	English
ISBN-13	9781591391784
No of pages	317
Font Size	Medium
Book Publisher	Harvard Business Review Press
Published Date	01 Jan 2004

About Author

Author : Max H. Bazerman

1 Books

Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School and the Co-Director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Max's research focuses on decision making, negotiation, and ethics. He is the author, co-author, or co-editor of twenty books and over 200 research articles and chapters. His latest book, The Power of Noticing: What the Best Leader See, is now available from Simon and Schuster.