Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change

Clyton M Christensen & Scott D Anthony

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Every day, individuals take action based on how they believe innovation will change industries. Yet these beliefs are largely based on guesswork and incomplete data and lead to costly errors in judgment. Now, internationally renowned innovation expert Clayton M. Christensen and his research partners Scott D. Anthony and Erik A. Roth present a groundbreaking framework for predicting outcomes in the evolution of any industry.

Based on proven theories outlined in Christensen's landmark books The Innovator's Dilemma and The Innovator's Solution, Seeing What's Next offers a practical, three-part model that helps decision-makers spot the signals of industry change, determine the outcome of competitive battles, and assess whether a firm's actions will ensure or threaten future success. Through in-depth case studies of industries from aviation to health care, the authors illustrate the predictive power of innovation theory in action.

What will you learn from this book

  1. Disruptive Innovation: The book expands on Christensen's concept of disruptive innovation, explaining how it can transform industries by initially serving low-end or niche markets and eventually displacing established competitors.

  2. S-Curve: The S-curve model is crucial for understanding the pace of technological progress and market adoption. It shows how innovations start slowly, accelerate, and then slow down as they reach maturity.

  3. Six Sources of Disruption: The authors identify six sources of disruption: technological enablers, regulatory environments, resource markets, market enablers, emerging markets, and competing technologies. Understanding these sources can help anticipate industry changes.

  4. Market and Non-Market Factors: The book emphasizes the importance of considering both market (demand, competition) and non-market (regulation, societal trends) factors when predicting industry evolution.

  5. Strategic Choices: Companies can make strategic choices that influence their trajectory, including where to play (market segment) and how to win (competitive strategy).

  6. Competing Technologies: The interplay between different technologies can significantly impact industry dynamics. Understanding the potential of competing technologies is crucial for anticipating future developments.

  7. Disruption Patterns: The book identifies patterns in how disruptive innovations unfold, such as new-market disruptions, low-end disruptions, and sustaining innovations. Recognizing these patterns can help companies respond effectively.

  8. Causal Mechanisms: Understanding the causal mechanisms behind industry change, such as how new technologies create new market opportunities, can help forecast future developments.

  9. Regulatory Considerations: Regulatory environments can either enable or hinder innovation and disruption. Understanding regulatory trends is crucial for anticipating industry shifts.

  10. Scenario Planning: Given the uncertainty of the future, scenario planning can help organizations prepare for different possible futures. This involves creating narratives of plausible future states and developing strategies to thrive in each scenario.

Language English
ISBN-10 1591391857
ISBN-13 9781591391852
No of pages 312
Font Size Medium
Book Publisher Harvard Business School Publishing
Published Date 21 Sep 2004

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